Probability of a Fed rate hike next week is approaching 100%.
Done deal. Source: Charlie Biello
The cost of cooking a classic Pizza Margherita in Italy continues to rise as olive oil prices soar.
Rise in cost of ingredients to make pizza outpaces inflation. Bloomberg custom index shows olive oil price up almost 27%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
US Industrial Production has turned negative on a YoY basis for the first time since February 2021.
Source: Charlie Bilello
U.K. inflation cooled significantly in June, coming in below consensus expectations at 7.9% annually
Economists polled by Reuters had projected an annual rise in the headline consumer price index of 8.2%, following May’s hotter-than-expected 8.7% reading, but annualized price rises continue to run well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased by 0.1%, below a consensus forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — remained sticky at an annualized 6.9%, but fell from a 31-year high of 7.1% in May. Source: CNBC
Coinfund Raises $152 Million to Boost Early-Stage Crypto, AI Startups
Venture capital firm Coinfund is digging in with new crypto start-ups with a fresh fundraising round at a time when many investors are pulling back from the industry. Coinfund, a New York-based VC firm that boasts 105 companies in its portfolio, announced today that it pulled in $152 million in its latest round. "In the post-FTX era, we've seen a lot of developers resolve to finish the roadmap to a decentralized application developer stack," Felix told Decrypt. "Now you're seeing a big, renewed focus on scalability, interoperability, and user experience to really bring that roadmap to decentralization to completion." Source: Decrypt
US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade.
Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Source: Bloomberg
The Nations SkewDex, which is a proxy of long put demand, reached the lowest level since data are recorded.
The Nations SkewDex compares the cost of out-of-the-money SPY put options to the cost of precisely at-the-money SPY options. Source: Bloomberg, C.Barraud
The Three Inflationary Waves of the 1970s
As highlighted by Tavi Costa / Crescat Capital, inflation tends to develop through waves. Just as base effects played a crucial role in reducing inflation rates so far this year, it does not mean that CPI might reach and stay at a low level. Indeed, while the macro environment today differs from that of the 1970s or 1940s, there are some underlying issues which could continue to drive inflation rates higher: ▪️ Irresponsible levels of government spending ▪️ Escalating deglobalization trends, which necessitate the revitalization of manufacturing capabilities in economies. ▪️ Wage-price spiral, particularly driven by low-income segments of the society ▪️ Ongoing supply constraints due to chronic