China's trade surplus in the first 2 months of 2024 is the biggest EVER.
Here's China's dilemma. It's caught in a deflationary debt spiral. Exports are a way out. But - at the same time - China's relations with the "developed" world are deteriorating. Source chart: Robin Brooks
Indian bonds are set to be added to global indexes. Here’s why it could be a gamechanger - CNBC
- The decision to include Indian government bonds in two prominent global indexes recently is being viewed as a shot in the arm for the rapidly growing country and is expected to bring in billions of inflows. - India’s bonds will be added to the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) in June, the Wall Street lender announced in September. - Goldman Sachs said it expects India’s bond markets to see inflows “upwards of $40 billion from the time of announcement to the end of the scale-in period, or around $2 billion per month.” - The biggest buyers of India’s government debt have so far been institutional organizations such as banks, mutual funds and insurance firms but addition to global indexes means it could now diversify the country’s avenues to raise funds. https://lnkd.in/d7hwmgZH Source: CNBC
With real estate bubble bursting, no access to foreign equities and bitcoin, no wonder that people are flocking to gold.
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
In recent years, India’s economy has continued to boom, just as China and other fast-growing countries have endured a post-pandemic slowdown.
But, the country has a long way to go to replicate China’s success, after the economic fortunes of the two diverged dramatically some 30 years ago. Indeed, as recently as 1992, the GDP per capita of the 2 countries — which share a 2,167-mile border — was roughly equivalent: today, India’s is roughly one-fifth of China’s reported $12.7k. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that India made up 15% of global growth in 2023, and, having overtaken the UK as the world’s 5th largest economy in 2022, it’s now on track for 3rd place behind the US and China by 2030. Source: Chartr
BREAKING: Japan's core inflation accelerates to 2.8%, the first increase in 4 months.
Japan's core inflation has now been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 23 consecutive months. Source: Win Smart
China scrutinizes PwC role in $78 billion Evergrande fraud case
Chinese authorities are examining the role of PWC in China Evergrande Group’s accounting practices after the developer was accused of a $78 billion fraud, ramping up pressure on the global accounting giant that audited a slew of developers before the sector’s meltdown.
Source: Bloomberg
Despite facing the typical challenges of a frontier market, Vietnam offers many attractive characteristics contributing to its rapid economic growth.
Thanks to its young and well-educated workforce and its competitive labor costs, the country has emerged as one the main beneficiaries of the “China+1” trend; it is one of the preferred destinations of global manufacturers looking to diversify their supply chains away from China. Source: Lumen Vietnam Fund
BREAKING - Bank of Japan raises rates to policy range of 0% to 0.1%, the first such rate hike in over a decade 💹 and scraps yield curve control.
The central bank will also stop buying ETFs and phase out buying of corporate debt. 2 key points: 1) That was completely in line with my preview 2) The tone was dovish as the boJ will continue JGB purchases at approximately the same amount as before. It pledged to gradually reduce its purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds, with the aim of stopping this practice in about a year. Market reaction >>> The Japanese yen weakened to as much as 149.92 against the greenback, while the Nikkei stock index swung between gains and losses following the BOJ decision. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year JGBs dipped. Source: Bloomberg
