Syz the moment

Despite an unprecedented number of setbacks (Collapse of FTX, a $2 trillion bear market, over 500 lawsuits and regulation cases, multiple crypto lender bankruptcies, Binance fined a record $4.3 billion by US regulators, increased calls for regulation around the globe, etc.), Bitcoin prices hit $43,000 for the first time since April 2022, up 180% since November 2022. Bitcoin is now up ~45% in 6 weeks since speculation of Bitcoin ETF approvals began. Over the last year Bitcoin has added a massive $470 BILLION of market cap. The entire crypto market has added $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

The move comes at a time when the global cryptocurrency industry has been caught in the crosshairs of the U.S. securities regulator on alleged violations of securities laws. Could it be that BlackRock has been buying Bitcoin throughout the whole bear market using this PRIVATE trust?

Is the analysis oversimplified? what will happen if several ETF spot bitcoin ar approved and large asset managers become forced buyers? As show below, a small number of adresses owns the vast majority of BTC currently in circulation. However, some analysts believe that this table is misleading. For instance, glassnode highlighted that the table below does not factor in custodians, lost coins, and wrapped BTC. Adjusting these numbers might get you below 50% of concentration for the top 2% adresses, which is still high but much better than the current global wealth distribution. Still, this raises the question about how big will the supply/demand imbalance be the day several Bictoin spot ETF are approved. Indeed, asset managers will become forced buyers of an asset which is indeed quiet scarce. It is however possible that some "wwhales" might take advantage of rising demand and price increase to offload some of the BTC they have been hodling. Time will tell.

Since then, Bitcoin is up 6.5% while gold prices have posted a massive $100 reversal. Some shift from gold to digital gold? Or just a random short-term divergence? Source: The Kobeissi Letter

I do see 2 messages here: 1) Short-term: Mr Market believes Mr Powell is bluffing, i.e rate cuts are coming; 2) Long-term: dollar debasement is inevitable. Investors and central banks are looking for reserve status

A Bloomberg's analysts assign a 90% probability of being approved by the SEC in January...

As a reminder: The single most important event for Bitcoin is the halving. Satoshi Nakamoto coded Bitcoin to half the reward payouts to miner's every 210,000 blocks. This event occurs approximately every four years and is a form of artificial inflation control, similar to a central bank printing less money. The halving ensures that the total supply of Bitcoin caps at 21 million, making it a deflationary asset. In simpler terms, as more time goes on, less and less Bitcoin are created. Every other fiat currency in existence is inflationary in nature. As more time goes on, more are created, thus making the currency you hold less valuable. This is what separates Bitcoin from everything else and why many believe that is is a digital store of value. As a function of economics and as Bitcoin's adoption rate grows, this means that demand will most likely outpace supply by a wide margin. The chart below shows past halving events and their market impact. Source: Jacob Canfield

Source: Steno Research