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The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in May 2024
Here's how bonds have performed during prior rate-cutting cycles... Source: Charlie Bilello
How low can the US 10-year bond yield go?
The US 10 year is breaking well below the short term trend line, hitting the 50 day right here. There is a small support here, but the bigger support is down around 4.3%. Note that the 200 day remains way lower, down around 3.95%. Source: TME
The 10-year note yield is now down ~35 basis points in just 5 days
This is the biggest pullback in treasury yields since the October 6th high. Let's keep in mind that it is not only due to a shift in Fed expectations, but rather a shift in US Treasury borrowing. As the US Treasury ramps up issuances of short-term debt, long-dated bonds are falling. However, higher for longer Fed policy seems to be setting a floor on this pullback. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
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