Locking in 2.5% real yields which is 0.5% above the economy's potential growth rates, with inflation optionality icing on top, is once in a decade valuation opportunity
-> According to Steve Donzé (Pictet Asset Management). He has a point...
The US 10-year note yield is now officially above the median cap rate for the first time since 2008, according to Reventure Consulting
In simple terms, the return on an investment property is now BELOW the 10-year note yield. It should be no surprise that investor house purchases are now down a massive 45% this year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
At the time of rising bond yields, here's a list of teh most indebted companies in the world by Genuine Impact
🚗Toyota Group is the most indebted company globally in 2023. 🏠While Evergrande Group, one of China’s biggest property developers, has lower debt than Toyota, its performance is significantly inferior to Toyota. It recently faced a debt crisis and is on the verge of collapse.
EM Middle East Sovereign Bonds Impacted by the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Since the commencement of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the 5-year CDS (Credit Default Swap) for Middle East sovereign bonds has experienced a significant surge. 📈 Notably, the market's response doesn't reflect heightened concern. This is evident as US equities have continued to climb since the conflict's onset, while interest rates have surged back to previous highs. 📈📊 Thus far, the impact has primarily reverberated in the commodities market, with fluctuations affecting oil and gold prices. Additionally, the Middle East sovereign countries in the EM (Emerging Markets) segment have also felt the repercussions. 🛢️💰 Is the market right to be this complacent in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions?
Ownership breakdown of the US Treasury market ($26 trillion)
Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
Big opportunities ahead for fixed income investors?
The past three years' pain in bonds could indeed be setting the stage for outsized gains ahead. To put the decline into perspective, long-term government bonds, with maturities greater than 20 years, have dropped 50% from their 2020 peak, a drawdown that is comparable to the 56% decline in stocks during the height of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 Source: Edward Jones
9% of bonds are set to mature in the next 2 years → The highest level since the Financial Crisis
High interest rates will make refinancing more difficult Source: Game of Trades
stocks vs bonds
Source: Brian Feroldi
