A tricky time for US government bonds...
US Treasuries are facing multiple headwinds - economic strength (Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth forecast is tracking close to 4% for the third quarter), an uptick in energy prices and FED QT. But another headwind is fading demand stemming from historical buyers of US Treasuries: 1- China US Treasury holdings just hit a 14-year low at less than $850bn 2- Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries fell to the lowest level in more than six year (less than $100B) 3 - As Japanese long-term yields rose (due to a tweak in their #monetarypolicy), the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, Japanese investors, became less interested in US bonds and asked for a premium. Source cartoon: GISreportonline
As highlighted by Caleb Franzen, the relative chart of SP500 / M2 money supply is trading at the exact same level as July 2007
This range also coincided with market peaks in: • Feb.'20 • Q4'21 While the S&P 500 itself has gained +181% in the past 16 years, $SPX/M2 has made no progress. Should this be seen as a logical resistance zone?
10-Year Treasury Yield is now 4.28%, the highest level since October 2007
From a total return perspective, the 10-Year Treasury Bond is now down 1% in 2023, on pace for its third consecutive negative year. With data going back to 1928, that's never happened before. Source: Charlie Bilello
Saudi Arabia reduced its US treasury holdings by $3.2 Billion in June to the lowest level in nearly 7 years.
Source: FT
The yield gap between 10y US and Chinese government bonds is now >160bps, widest since 2007
Source: Bloomberg
China's credit landscape under stress!
Ever since the shockwaves of the #CountryGarden upheaval, the Chinese credit landscape has been undergoing a seismic shift. The credit default swap (#CDS) market tells a compelling story - #China's 5-year CDS is on a relentless rise (+25bps), and the Markit iTraxx Asian ex Japan #InvestmentGrade index is soaring (+30bps). Foreign investors are strategically repositioning, swiftly #divesting their holdings in Chinese #assets, particularly on the domestic front. Can the #PBOC orchestrate the necessary #stimulus maneuvers to put an end to this spiral of uncertainty?
We are approaching quite a formidable global #debt maturity wall...
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Morgan Stanley
From T.I.N.A (There Is No Alternatives to Risk assets) to T.A.R.A (There Are Reasonable Alternatives)... 6-months US T-bills yield 94bps more than the S&P's earnings yield...
Source: Bloomberg
