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The fact that Retail investors are rapidly buying the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - despite the bond bloodbath - could mean that the sentiment is far from being oversold
From a contrarian perspective, this is NOT a positive for long-dated bonds. Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg, VandaTrack
Shorting US 10y bonds seems to be one of the most crowded trades at the moment
Among the shorts, Billionaire investor Bill Ackman. To his opinion, if long-term inflation is 3% not 2%, the 30y Treasury yield could rise to 5.5%. In contrast, Warren Buffett has announced buying positions in 10y US Treasuries. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Junk bonds are outperforming as soft landing narrative builds
High-yield has returned 6.50% this year vs 3.70% for high-grade.
Junk bonds are emerging as a sweet spot in global fixed-income markets wracked by some of the worst volatility this year, as investors increasingly bet that major economies will avoid recession for now.
Source: Bloomberg
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