US futures hit a new ALL TIME HIGH after Washington Post confirmed a US-Iran ceasefire framework for 60 days.
Dow Jones is up +0.91% hitting 51,211. S&P500 is up +0.95% hitting 7,569. Nasdaq is up +1.35% hitting 29,995. Russell is up +1.57% hitting 2,922. Source: Bull Theory
The MSCI Emerging Markets index relative chart (vs. the US) looks very different if you take out TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix.
Source: Oxford Economics
UBS’s balance sheet is bigger than Switzerland’s economy.
Source: @financialtimes
Short Squeeze Risks Rising?
“…Goldman Sachs’ trading desks argue that the core tension in today’s market is not about the strength or weakness of fundamentals, but rather the excessive accumulation of short positions, which—if triggered into covering—could unleash a self-reinforcing upward spiral…” Source: kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2
The decline in the number of public companies has been driven by the disappearance of small companies.
Source: @a16z, (((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook
Immune SPX?
The gap between SPX and inverse MOVE remains enormous. Equities keep trading as if the recent explosion in bond volatility is somebody else’s problem. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace Activate to view larger image,
Hedge funds are shorting the US stock market at the highest level since 2021.
Short exposure to US equity index and ETF products just hit 13% of total gross exposure. It is nearly double where it was before COVID and the highest reading in 5 years. The S&P 500 is near all time highs. Bond yields are at 2007 levels. And Japan's bond market is cracking. Korean retail investors are borrowing record amounts to chase stocks higher. Retail is buying and Hedge funds are shorting. One of them is about to be very wrong. Chart: Bull Theory on X
What a journey for the Nasdaq 100...
If you had invested $10,000 in the Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ at the PEAK of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, your investment would be worth around $61,650 today — a gain of +516%, or +7.2% annualised. And that’s despite navigating through 9/11, the 2001–2002 recession, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and major geopolitical conflicts including Russia-Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. As Warren Buffett famously said: “Never bet against America.” Source chart: Rand Group
