What happened to luxury stocks ?
Current Drawdowns: EssilorLuxottica: -39% Hermès: -41% Ferrari: -43% LVMH: -49% $RACE $RMS $MC $EL Source: Fiscal.ai
Range or breakdown?
Markets are at a decision point. The big range is still holding, but short-term trends, bond stress, and positioning shifts are building pressure. These setups don’t linger, one side eventually wins. Source: TME
The S&P 500 $SPX is back inside the "eternal" range as the max frustration market continues.
Amazingly enough, the 6600/7000 (futures) range continues to hold. Note we are still below the 200 day MA. Source: TME
Will the equity market follow the historical script around geopolitical shocks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is in the vicinity of a typical bottom in size and timing." - Deutsche Bank Source: Sam Ro @SamRo DB
Today is the six-year anniversary of the COVID Crash low.
The S&P would need to fall 66% to get back to that level. Source: Bespoke
The S&P 500 Technology sector is now trading below last year’s tariff-selloff lows.
As a result, Tech trades at a 21% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio and 10% below its 10-year average, making it the most discounted sector in the S&P 500. Source: Duality Research @DualityResearch
SPX is pressing the lower end of the “eternal” range that has held since September.
The move lower hasn’t been a panic, it’s been a grind, the type of price action that slowly bleeds positioning rather than flushing it. We’re now below the 200-day, but without any real urgency in the tape. 6600 (futures) remains the line in the sand. Below 6600 → downside accelerates. Hold it → range survives. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG
Will this time be different?
Yet despite the growing tension, the price action is still closely following the typical historical pattern seen in US equities during geopolitical shocks. So far, this looks like a standard shock, not a regime break, and we may now be nearing the point where markets tend to bottom. To hold or not to hold... Source: DB
