INCREASE IN EQUITY SUPPLY = SHARES FLOATED AT IPO + EXPIRING LOCKUPS
Source: BofA
Active large-cap equity managers are struggling to keep pace with a technology-led market rally, with only 20.5% outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
Source: Bloomberg, The Daily Shot
Any retail investor who bought Cerebras after the IPO got decimated.
What about SpaceX?
Anthropic is now worth as much as 11 of the biggest software companies combined.
Source: Carbon Finance
Stock returns since IPO
Source: Stocks World
SpaceX’s IPO pitch might be the boldest AI bet Wall Street has ever seen.
Goldman Sachs is reportedly projecting: • SpaceX valuation target: $1.78 TRILLION • AI revenue growth: from $3.2B → $322B by 2030 • Total company revenue: from $18.7B → $474B • EBITDA: from $6.6B → $352B Let that sink in. The most shocking part? By 2030, Goldman expects SpaceX’s AI business to generate MORE than: Starlink Rockets Space operations combined Translation: SpaceX is no longer being pitched as a space company. It’s being pitched as an AI company with rockets attached. But here’s the catch: For these projections to work, Grok would need to outperform OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic in: • Coding • AI agents • Cybersecurity • Enterprise AI • Consumer chatbots That’s an enormous leap — especially for a business currently losing billions and struggling for adoption. Still, this tells us something important: Wall Street is no longer valuing companies based on what they are today. It’s valuing who could dominate AI tomorrow. The AI race is officially rewriting how trillion-dollar companies are built. And investors are willing to price in the future before it exist
Just for reference the market cap of the entire stock markets
• UK: ~$3.94 trillion • France: ~$3.45 trillion • Germany: ~$3.04 trillion Europe is becoming really poor. Source: Michel A.Arouet
marvel $MRVL is up 245% since Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment on March 31 and has added $224 billion to its market cap in just 66 days.
Just 3 days ago Jensen Huang said "This is the next trillion dollar company." Since that single sentence, MRVL is up another 65%. At $278 billion today, Marvell needs to 3.6x from here to reach $1 trillion. Source: Bull Theory
