The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Speculation is Back
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings. There is hope that earnings will start recovering in Q3 and through 2024. Source: Edward Jones
Bullish sentiment on equities is getting even more bullish
Bullish sentiment on equities is getting even more bullish. Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility
Since 1941 strong first half S&P 500 performance has been associated with further gains in the second half of the year, though with more volatility. Past performance does not guarantee future results... Source: Edward Jones
$JPM JP Morgan Chase Q2 FY23 numbers
$JPM JP Morgan Chase Q2 FY23 numbers • Net revenue +34% Y/Y to $41.3B ($2.5B beat). • Net Income $14.5B. • EPS: $4.37 ($0.61 beat). • CET1 ratio of 13.8%. $2.7B First Republic bargain purchase gain in Corporate. Source: App Economy Insights
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears"
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).
S&P 500 Concentration Now Tops the Tech Bubble
The return spread between the seven largest S&P500 stocks compared to the rest of the index is now higher than when the Dot Com Bubble Burst. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg