Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk
BofA, Markets & Mayhem 🤖
BREAKING: Average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rises to 7.93%, its highest since July 2000
Since January 2021, less than 3 years ago, interest rates have gone from 2.65% to 7.93%. This means that homebuyers just 3 years ago would see their interest rate TRIPLE if they decided to move. This is exactly why existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. The average new home is about to cost LESS than the average existing home for the first time since 2005. You know something is wrong when old costs more than new. Why sell if your mortgage rate triples? From The Kobeissi Letter
Interesting FT article on UK neobanks: "UK fintech: neobanks may end up blending in"
Low fees mean profits have remained elusive. But higher interest rates are now compensating for that, not least with better returns on client money put out on deposit. Satisfaction scores by customers are also much higher than traditional banks. Some lessons need to be learned. Source: https://lnkd.in/emZyY76d
Open interest for bullish call contracts has soared to an all-time high for $TLT
Traders see an end to the market rout that has led to TLT’s longest streak of weekly losses since 2022. Source: Credit From Macro to Micro
The impacts of rising interest rates on the costs of your mortgage over the life of the loan
In the US, A $400,000 house now costs over $1,000,000, with interest rates now at 7.7% from 3%. Source: WallStreet Sliver
US 30Year Yield reaches 2007 High
The US 30-year yield rose to the highest level since 2007. This week's Treasury selloff came after US lawmakers managed to avert a government shutdown, prompting traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in November.
The longest time period chart on US interest rates you will ever find...
Source: BofA
While mega-caps tech stocks are recording huge returns on their cash pile thanks to the rise of interest rates, this is not the case for the rest of the market
Small cap companies are paying the most interest expense ever recorded and unfortunately their interest income is not keeping pace. This will become an even larger problem when small companies are forced to refinance at significantly higher rates. Source: FT, barchart
