With interest rates on the rise and monetary conditions tightening, US corporate bankruptcies are finally starting to tick higher
Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.5% in December, the lowest rate we've seen since 1969
There were both dovish and hawkish news in the December US job report. DOVISH -> Average hourly earnings is +0.3% MoM, lower than expectations (+0.4%) and lower than previous month (+0.4% revised lower from +0.6%). On a yearly basis: +4.6% vs. 5.1% expected and +4.8% in November. This is the lowest y/y growth since August 2021. HAWKISH -> Job growth is 223k which is lower than in November and higher than expected (200k). Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is the lowest since 1965... It is quite remarkable to see unemployment rate going lower after several quarters of rate hikes... BOTTOM-LINE The Fed job is not over. They will continue hiking rates as long as job growth stays above 200k per month, unemployment rate at record low and wage growth still meaningfully above 2% y/y. Source chart: Charlie Bilello
Euro-Zone inflation’s sharp drop to single-digit masks underlying pressures
Euro-Zone prices rose by 9.2% in December which is lower than economists consensus expectations (9.5%). However, core inflation hits record-high 5.2%. ECB rate hikes cycle is likely to continue. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Black Friday nominal and real US retail sales growth
Retailers’ Inflation-Fighting Discounts Yield Modest Growth on Black Friday
Korean House Prices Drop by Most Since 2013 as Credit Woes Moun
Source: Bloomberg
No US recession in 4Q according to Atlanta Fed Nowcast
Atlanta Fed nowcast has Q4 GDP running very hot at 4%, which is up a full percentage point from their initial estimate. No recession in their forecast yet.
A map which shows inflation in Europe
Using latest available data from Eurostat. Source: Milos Popovic.
Largest trading partners by country: 2000 vs. 2020
Countries whose largest trading partner is: - China in red - USA in blue Year 2000 vs 2020 Source: Statista
