US smallcap stocks now account for less than 4% of the entire US equity market.
They now reflect the same percentage of the market as 1930 before the Great Depression. As AI-hype as spreads, small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large caps. Currently, more than one-third of the Russell 2000 index has negative earnings, down from ~45% in 2020. Small-cap stocks are now hated more than ever. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Ahead of US inflation numbers tomorrow (Wednesday), US 2-year breakeven rates just rose to 13-month highs...
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020. That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period. The worst part? This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing." What happens if a recession hits? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
Will the big deflationary wave out of China offset the inflationary pressures stemming from rising oil prices and hot job market in the US?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
And the Winner is…
Via @PendulumFlow thru Michel A.Arouet
US inflation has officially been at 3% or higher for exactly 3 years.
The Average American is now paying nearly 40% MORE for groceries than what they were paying in 2019. Over 100 food items have seen inflation above 50% since 2019...
Early retirements surged again in late 2023 with the gains in the stock market and home prices, leading to a record 2.7 million excess retirees in the US.
Source: Bloomberg, Charlie Bilello
Torsten Slok at Apollo is sticking to his view that there will be no US rate cut this year...
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Apollo
