US Small-Business Optimism Falls to a More Than 11-Year Low
source : Bloomberg
US stocks are expensive. That is true, but it is mainly due to tech.
If you look around you'll notice that areas like the cyclicals (energy, financials, materials, and industrials) are all fairly valued and in some cases outright cheap. Source: Carson Investment Research
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for US CPI today
Source: WSJ
US breakeven inflation rates rising
Source: Win Smart; Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg
US smallcap stocks now account for less than 4% of the entire US equity market.
They now reflect the same percentage of the market as 1930 before the Great Depression. As AI-hype as spreads, small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large caps. Currently, more than one-third of the Russell 2000 index has negative earnings, down from ~45% in 2020. Small-cap stocks are now hated more than ever. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Ahead of US inflation numbers tomorrow (Wednesday), US 2-year breakeven rates just rose to 13-month highs...
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025.
Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days. To put this in perspective, if US debt hits $40 trillion in 2025 that would be a $17 TRILLION increase since 2020. That would be a ~570% jump in US Federal debt since 2000, a 25-year period. The worst part? This analysis assumes that we are on track for a "soft landing." What happens if a recession hits? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
Will the big deflationary wave out of China offset the inflationary pressures stemming from rising oil prices and hot job market in the US?
Source: Michel A.Arouet
