The era of fiscal dominance
source: MacroAlf. Inflation-adjusted US fiscal deficits popping up at: - World War I - World War II - Great Financial Crisis - Covid - 2023 Find the outlier...
Is there a chance for the us to start slowing down the pace of debt increase?
Well... think about this: "I'm the king of debt. I'm great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me." - Donald Trump Source: Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT, CFTe, MSTA
A contrarian idea on us small caps?
=> FUNDSTRAT: “.. Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside .. Russell 2000 companies are set to grow .. faster than the $SPX .. Valuations are far more attractive .. when CEO confidence recovers, we also see the low valuations as setting the stage for synergistic M&A ..” Source: Carl Quintanilla, Fund strat
Price of a home in the us (median price) vs. bitcoin over time
Source: coinsauce
BREAKING: US new home prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008, according to Reventure.
New home prices peaked in late-2022 at $497,000 and have fallen to $401,000 as of the latest data. In the financial crisis, new home prices dropped by 23% from 2007-2010, according to Reventure. US Home prices are down roughly the same amount in just 1.5 years, or half the amount of time. Still, new home prices are ~20% above pre-pandemic levels and existing home supply is near record lows. Is the hashtag#us housing market beginning to crack? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Re-venture
US High Yield Credit Spreads have moved down to 3.05%, their tightest level since January 2022.
US Investment Grade Credit Spreads have moved down to 0.91%, their tightest level since November 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello
Are us financial conditions becoming too easy to tame inflation ?
Source: Bloomberg, Steno Research, Macrobond
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, today’s US infrastructure spending is likely to dwarf what we experienced during the rebuild period post-WWII by the US and the rest of the world.
Escalating geopolitical tensions and growing disagreements among nations are incentivizing countries to bolster their self-reliance in domestic operations. These circumstances are poised to catalyze what could evolve into one of the most ambitious infrastructure initiatives in history, with the potential to be highly inflationary. The last major infrastructure push in the United States occurred in 1956 with the National Interstate and Defense Highway Act under President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Initially budgeted at $25 billion, equivalent to approximately $207 billion in today's currency. This initiative pales in comparison to the recent Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which authorizes government spending nearly six times that amount, totaling $1.2 trillion. The chart below also considered the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022, expecting a significant portion of those funds to be directed towards new infrastructure projects, including those associated with the green revolution and other initiatives. Sources: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
