The US housing market conundrum ->
New home sales just surged 12.3% month-over-month in September, the largest jump since August 2022. Even as mortgage rates push above 8% for the first time in 23 years, new home sales are surging. The gap between new home sales and mortgage rates has never been wider. Why is this happening? Explanation by The Kobeissi Letter: -> Homebuilders are taking on some of the cost of higher mortgages AND existing home sales are at their lowest since 2010. New homes are the only option for buyers and homebuilders are helping pay for it. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
The money market yield spike upends a ton of business models. In this case, landlording in the US
Inded, multifamily cap rate is now BELOW cash rate... Source: Jeff Weniger
US deficit is doubling as US Economy grows shows why yields are at 5%
Source: Bitcoin magazine
A Big drop in US flash PMI selling price gauge in October brings the FOMC 2% target into focus for the first time in three years
Source: Chris Williamson
CTAs are running equity shorts, global as well as US
Source: TME, GS
This chart illustrates another factor contributing to the increase in US bond yields:
Concerns about the govt's ability to manage its debt responsibly. The price of insuring against the possibility of the US government defaulting on its obligations (CDS Price) has recently jumped Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The premium to buy a home vs. rent one has soared to 52%, the highest level ever recorded
Even in 2008, the premium to own peaked at 33%. Source: barchart
Shares of US firms that miss profit estimates are falling by the most in four years:
Bloomberg Intelligence
