M2 money supply has declined at the fastest rate ever recorded since the Fed began collecting data in 1959
Probably has helped cool inflation but could it usher in a new set of problems? Source: Fred, Barchart
The "soft landing" of the US economy is the new consensus.
Source: BofA survey
Probability of a Fed rate hike next week is approaching 100%.
Done deal. Source: Charlie Biello
US Industrial Production has turned negative on a YoY basis for the first time since February 2021.
Source: Charlie Bilello
US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade.
Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Source: Bloomberg
Despite weak US retail sales, yesterday was another strong session for us stocks after Microsoft $MSFT announced new pricing for its AI offerings...
For context, $MSFT and $NVDA have added $175BN market cap today, more than the mkt cap of 462 S&P companies, and more than the value of Nike, Wells Fargo, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, Intel, etc This ai related news drove value back near its record lows relative to growth... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
First ETF with 100% protection against losses launches in US
Is it the perfect product? The world's first ETF to offer 100% protection against losses (not including management and transaction fees) launched today in the U.S. The Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF $TJUL will focus on the SP500 and use options to shield investors from losses. The fund, which requires investors to forgo some potential gains, is aiming to disrupt the annuities market. Source: Barchart, FT
After adjusting for inflation, US Retail Sales fell 2.5% over the last year, the 8th consecutive YoY decline.
That's the longest down streak since 2009. Nominal retail sales increased 0.5% YoY vs. historical average of 4.7%. Source: Charlie Bilello