Syz the moment

Source: Game of Trades

The European Central Bank approach continues to follow a data-dependent approach in determining rate path. THE STATEMENT • Inflation forecasts by ECB staff have been lowered, especially for 2024, largely due to reduced energy price pressures. Inflation is now expected to average 2.3% in 2024 and to stabilize around 2.0% in the following years; core inflation projections also revised downwards. They nevertheless say that domestic price pressures remain high, partly due to wages. They say that domestic price pressures remain high, partly due to wages. • Growth projections for 2024 have been downgraded to 0.6%, with a gradual recovery anticipated, leading to 1.5% growth in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. • The ECB believes current interest rates, if maintained, will significantly contribute to reducing inflation and has committed to keeping rates at restrictive levels as needed. MARKET REACTION • EUR/USD is weaker on the news (to 1.0875) and EUR rates extend their move lower (they were already down every day this week, and prior to the ECB announcement). German 10y is down -7bp to 2.25% at the time we write • Rate cuts expectations are slightly increased for this year, but not massively so far (still four 25bp rate cuts by the end of the year when rounding the probabilities) OUR TAKE • Overall, this is a rather dovish statement for now - let see if Lagarde press conference will reinforces the dovish reading or if she counterbalances the message from the downward revisions on growth in inflation. Source: chart: Bloomberg

With Powell's remarks today, Wall Street's hopes for a March rate cut (once 97%) officially hit 0. "Maybe he should consider using models that have been consistently accurate, instead of listening to those who give him 'different answers' (his words) that have been consistently wrong." From : Mitchel Krause, hedgeye : With Powell's remarks today, Wall Street's hopes for a March rate cut (once 97%) officially hit 0. "Maybe he should consider using models that have been consistently accurate, instead of listening to those who give him 'different answers' (his words) that have been consistently wrong." From : Mitchel Krause, hedgeye :https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/147337-mitchel-krause-how-wall-street-s-hopes-for-march-cuts-quickly-collaps?type=guest-contributors

Source chart: The Macro Guy, Macrobond

🌟 Delving into recent insights from the Financial Times sheds light on the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and its implications for financial markets. Let's break it down: 📊 QT's Functionality: Recent evidence from a study involving seven central banks, including the Fed's earlier QT efforts from 2017-2019, reveals that QT operates "in the background," subtly supporting central banks' endeavors to tighten financial conditions without significantly disrupting market functioning or liquidity. 💼 Market Reaction: Announcements of QT's commencement have led to slight increases in government bond yields. However, the actual implementation of QT, including outright bond sales, has had minimal disruptive effects on market dynamics and liquidity. 🔄 Passive vs. Active QT: The distinction between passive and active QT strategies is crucial. While passive QT (letting bonds mature) impacts short-end yields, active QT (outright sales) tends to steepen the yield curve, highlighting the nuanced effects of different QT approaches. 🤝 Market Support: The smooth adjustments observed in response to QT can be attributed partly to domestic nonbanks and, to a lesser extent, foreign investors stepping in to purchase securities as central banks reduce their holdings, maintaining market stability amidst changes in monetary policy. 💡 Navigating Future Challenges: What strategies will central banks employ to navigate the looming challenges posed by high government debt issuance and absorbed pandemic-era liquidity, in light of the insights gleaned from recent evidence on quantitative tightening's impact? #QuantitativeTightening #FinancialMarkets #CentralBanks #EconomicInsights

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Japanese government bond yields are on the rise across the curve, triggered by Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata's comments hinting at a potential end to the negative interest rate policy. Takata cited progress towards achieving the price target, indicating a possible rate hike—the country's first since 2007—expected in March or April. The front end of the Japanese yield curve is particularly influenced by the BOJ's monetary policy and continues to reprice higher rates. The market anticipates a 0.25% rate hike for the full 2024 year. It appears that Japan will gradually transition away from the negative interest rate monetary policy. 🇯🇵💼 #JapanEconomy #BOJ #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #FinanceNews

Just over a month ago, the base case showed a 50%+ chance of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, odds of a March rate cut are down to 3% and odds of a May rate cut are down to 19%. For the first time in 2024, markets are close to the Fed's latest guidance of 3 cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter