Syz the moment

Japanese government bond yields are on the rise across the curve, triggered by Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata's comments hinting at a potential end to the negative interest rate policy. Takata cited progress towards achieving the price target, indicating a possible rate hike—the country's first since 2007—expected in March or April. The front end of the Japanese yield curve is particularly influenced by the BOJ's monetary policy and continues to reprice higher rates. The market anticipates a 0.25% rate hike for the full 2024 year. It appears that Japan will gradually transition away from the negative interest rate monetary policy. 🇯🇵💼 #JapanEconomy #BOJ #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #FinanceNews

Just over a month ago, the base case showed a 50%+ chance of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, odds of a March rate cut are down to 3% and odds of a May rate cut are down to 19%. For the first time in 2024, markets are close to the Fed's latest guidance of 3 cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

"The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow and inconvenient." Whatever Lagarde and the ecb say, the harsh reality is that the euro has collapsed againt bitcoin as all fiat currencies did. Source: Aries V., Senior Investment Data analyst at Fidelity

"Because there are only two rounds of inflation data and a little over two months until the May (Fed) meeting, the comments suggest to us that a rate cut as early as May, which we had previously expected, is unlikely," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. They now forecast an extra cut next year instead, with an unchanged terminal rate forecast of 3.25-3.5%." source : goldmansachs, reuters

Too easy? Bear in mind what the FOMC said in the Minutes on Wednesday: "Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall." Could this lead the fed to keep rates higher for longer? How long will the market be able to shrug off high rates and higher bond yields? Source: www.zerohedge

March probability = 5% (was 80% at the start of the year) May probability = 29% (was 100% at the start of the year) June probability = 67% (was 100% at the start of the year) Source: Bianco Research

The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding. The meeting summary indicated a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years. However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy while saying that rate hikes are likely over. Members cited the “risks of moving too quickly” on cuts. Source: CNBC Activate to view larger image,

In the last 12 months alone, there has been a rise of $420 billion, primarily fueled by bank reserves. While the Fed should not classify this as QE due to mechanical differences, it seems to echo the patterns of previous periods of monetary stimulus following the Global Financial Crisis. The economy (and markets) are addicted to liquidity. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa