Syz the moment

Last FOMC interest rate decision of 2024 is today at 2PM ET, followed by the usual press conference. A 25bps rate cut looks like a done deal. Key questions:1) Why is he cutting while stocks are ATH and Core CPI above 3% 43 months in a row= 2) Will it be a "hawkish cut" with significant upside revisions to growth and inflation forecasts + downward revision to the dot plot? Merry Christmas Mr Powell Source image: TrendSpider

Yes, the Fed has already cut near all-time-highs and you know what ❓ The Bulls 🐮 Liked it 👍 The S&P 500 is less than 2% away from all-time highs the day before a Fed decision. Since 1980, there were 20 other times they cut rates within 2% of ATHs. The S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times 🚀 Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick

”History shows only central banks end melt-ups”… Source: BofA, Wasteland Capital

For the first time since the "Fed pivot" began, Apollo has officially declared inflation back on the rise. They warn of a potential repeat the 1970s as the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation. Apollo says the probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates in 2025 is now rising. Here's why: 👉 First, measures of inflation stickiness are all now well above the Fed's 2% target. In fact, the Atlanta Fed Core Sticky CPI index has leveled off near 4%. ALL major measures of CPI stickiness are now above 3%. 👉 Meanwhile, core CPI has levelled off at 3.3% fore multiple months in a row. This was "fine" because headline CPI was moving in a straight-line to 2% all year. However, as of the latest CPI inflation data, it's now RISING and back to 2.7%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Apollo

Fifth cut in a row... Dropping the policy rate from 5% to 3.25% in 2024—150 bps total. But it’s not working fast enough: -Unemployment: 6.8% (highest in 8 years). -GDP per capita: Down 6 straight quarters. -Canadian Dollar $CAD at 4.5-year low -Former BOC Governor says “We’re already in a recession.” Market is pricing in another ~50bps of cuts by July 2025 ➡️ 2.75% overnight rate. Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg

Market is pricing an 86% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, up from 73% last week. This comes after the November job report showed a lot of weakness under the surface. The Fed cut rates by 0.50% and 0.25% in Sep and Nov. Source: Global Markets Investor

The Bank of England will hide the identities of any pension funds, insurers or hedge funds bailed out under a new financial stability tool to prevent crisis contagion... Source: Radar @RadarHits - Bloomberg

The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce rate decisions. ECB and SNB are expected to cut by 0.25%, and BoC by 0.50%, while RBA to leave rates unchanged. Source; Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv, Bloomberg