The market now expects the ECB to raise its key rate at the highest level ever!
As reflected in the European swap market, market participants expect the ECB to raise its key interest rates to a level never before seen. The terminal rate is expected to be close to 4%, up from 3.75% in the early 2000s. Interestingly, for the first time in this cycle, the markets believe that the terminal rate will be reached in 2024 (and not in 2023). Higher rates for longer? Source: Bloomberg.
Eurozone M1 money supply YoY turned negative for 1st time since start of the statistic
The annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1 decreased to -0.7% in January 2023 from 0.6% in Dececember 2022, while M3 money supply slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% in December. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The market no longer expects a rate cut during the summer!
While the market has been anticipating the first Federal Reserve rate cut in the summer of 2023 for the past year, improving economic growth sentiment and a still strong job market have led the market to revise its expectations. Indeed, the spread between the SOFR 3-month June and September 2023 futures turned positive yesterday, reflecting the fact that no further rate cuts are expected by the market from June to September. Source: Bloomberg
A new cycle high for U.S. terminal rate expectation
The market has pushed its expectations for the U.S. terminal rate higher (and longer). Indeed, it now appears that it will end slightly above 5% and in July 2023 (one month later than previously expected). The resilience of the U.S. economy (driven by a strong labor market) continues to drive terminal rate expectations higher and for a longer period of time. Source: Bloomberg
FED swaps price in 50bp of rate cuts for second half of 2023
Source: Bloomberg, Alessio Urban
Friday's payrolls report changed the landscape a bit for Fed funds expectations
On Thursday, traders were pricing in peak rates below 4.9% and 50bp of rate cuts by yearend. Today, they're pricing in peak rates of 5.1% and less than 30bp of rate cuts. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowicz
Bank of Japan (BoJ) owns ~50% of Japan's national debt
Japan's national debt stands at 1,280 trillion Yen or roughly $9.2 trillion. Bank of Japan (BoJ) owns ~50% of Japan's national debt: 564 trillion yen. If they continue with same pace of bond buying, they will own all the outstanding bonds in 33 weeks Source; WallStreetSilver, SagarSinghSetia
Fed fund rate above Core PCE for the first time since the pandemic!
For the first time since February 2020, Fed funds rates are positive in real terms as the Core PCE index came out at 4.4% (vs. 4.5% for the Fed funds rate). This bodes well for an imminent halt in rate hikes, unless the US economy surprises on the upside. Source: Bloomberg
