🚨 TSMC’s Growth Just Slowed — and the Entire AI Supply Chain Is Watching
Bloomberg reports TSMC’s October sales rose 16.9% — still strong, but slower than the recent surge. Why it matters: TSMC sits at the choke point of advanced chips. When it slows, the ripple hits GPUs, memory, packaging, the whole AI stack. 📉 A slowdown in monthly sales doesn’t always mean weak demand. It can be: - Order timing (customers shifting deliveries) - Yield ramps (new node transitions) - Inventory digestion (buyers catching up) But zoom out… 💰 Cloud giants plan to spend >$400B on AI infrastructure next year — a 21% jump. That money flows straight into NVIDIA GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, and TSMC’s cutting-edge wafers. 🗣️ NVIDIA’s CEO says demand is “getting stronger month by month” and even met with TSMC’s CEO to ask for more capacity. Translation: supply, not demand, is still the bottleneck. TSMC also builds for AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple — so who gets priority at the fab affects entire product launches. 🎯 The company says capacity is “very tight,” and chip designers are literally chasing slots in Hsinchu. Source: Bloomberg, Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai
$AMD is the second best performing position over the last 10 Years in the S&P 500
Source: Charlie Bilello
The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Germany, continues to lose ground on global stock markets.
The market value of German equities has dropped to just 2% of total global market capitalisation, as the early-year momentum has completely faded. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Lot of panic out there, but don't lose faith in November yet.
S&P 500 up 10% YTD heading into November? November higher 13 of the past 14 years. Final two months of the year higher 16 times in a row. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick
The S&P 500 has gained 10% per year over the long run (including dividends) but that return hasn't come in a straight line.
Changes in investor sentiment have led to huge deviations from the 10% trendline at times, with periods of extreme greed (2000) & extreme fear (2009). $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello
A week ago, S&P 500 Q3 earnings were up 10.7% YoY.
Today is it 13.0%. Earnings continue to drive this bull market. Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Carson
Yesterday was officially the first day Bank of America stock has fully recovered from the Global Financial Crisis.
Source: Dividendology @dividendology
