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The European composite PMI output index pointed to the sharpest decline in nearly three years
October's data also showed firms in the region cutting staff on a net basis for the first time since early 2021 The region is quite likely to go into a recession. Source: Markets Mayhem
Eurozone inflation sinks to 2y low as Eurozone economy shrinks:
CPI slowed to 2.9% in Oct, down from 4.3% and better than expected 3.1%. But Core CPI – that excluding food & energy is retreating less rapidly. It moderated to 4.2% in October from 4.5% the previous month. Our take: disinflationary trend is firmly in place in the EZ although wage inf’still stickiness and more difficult comps in H2 prevent core inflation to decline more meaningfully. We believe there is enough progress for the ECB to stay put (i.e rates hike cycle is over) and potentially cut rates next year if EZ economy slows down meaningfully Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes
Ifo expectations index rose to 84.7 in Oct, up from 83.1 in Sep and way better than BBG consensus of 83.5. "What we see here does suggest that we see a certain stabilization,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest told BBG. “The German economy will be shrinking this year, but for the final quarter we do expect a stabilization, slight growth.” Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
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