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13 Jan 2025

Gas storage levels in Germany continue declining.

They are now down to just 72.9% of full, significantly below the average for recent years. Gas prices rise accordingly by 4.3% this morning. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

13 Jan 2025

In Germany, Chancellor Scholz attempts to boost his campaign by appealing to anti-American sentiment.

He steps up criticism of Trump’s expansionist rhetoric. Currently, Scholz's SPD is trailing in third place, behind the CDU/CSU and AfD. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

9 Jan 2025

French OAT 10-year just hit 3,40% while OAT-Bund spread is now at 86bps…

What is the pain threshold for ecb to step in?

9 Jan 2025

🚨 BREAKING >>> Denmark Says It’s Open To Conversations With Trump — But Greenland Won’t Become A US State

👉 A Danish foreign minister said Wednesday Denmark is “open to a dialogue with the Americans on how we can cooperate, possibly even more closely than we already do, to ensure that American ambitions are fulfilled,” multiple outlets reported, just one day after President-elect Donald Trump refused to rule out using military force to gain control of Greenland. 👉 Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told reporters the United States and NATO had “legitimate” interests in the region, saying “in conjunction with the melting of the Arctic and new shipping lanes opening up, we are unfortunately also seeing an increase in great power rivalry.” 👉 Greenland is part of Denmark, has representatives in the Danish parliament and its foreign relations are controlled by Denmark, though there has been a growing push for full independence in recent years. 👉 Løkke Rasmussen also noted “Greenland has its own ambitions” and said “if they materialize, Greenland will become independent, though hardly with an ambition to become a federal state in the United States,” Politico reported. 👉 The comments from the Danish diplomat followed a Tuesday press conference from Trump in which he said, “We need Greenland for national security purposes” and would not commit to not using military force to acquire it or the Panama Canal. 👉 Trump also questioned whether Denmark has a right to Greenland on Tuesday, saying, “nobody even knows if they have any right, title or interest.” ⚡ The most important category in the chart below is „Other“. It’s mainly rare earths. Trump probably seeks to solve some strategic problems for the US. Source: Michael A. Arouet on X, Forbes

7 Jan 2025

European stocks trade at over 40% discount versus the US stock market, the biggest in at least 35 YEARS!

This comes as Europe's forward P/E ratio is ~13x, way below the S&P 500 P/E of 22x. Europe has rarely been so cheap on a relative basis. This is also valid on a sector-adjusted basis. Source: Goldman Sachs, Global Markets Investor, Datastream

7 Jan 2025

A shocking chart: The European Union imported last year more Russian LNG than ever.

Do as I say, not as I do Source: Javier Blas on X

6 Jan 2025

France has always missed its deficit forecasts, always.

It runs 6% fiscal deficit during good times. With the current political paralysis there will be no long overdue structural reforms, especially of pensions. It will miss current forecasts as well. Could the next Euro crisis start in France? Source: Michel A.Arouet Chart @OxfordEconomics

6 Jan 2025

Italy plans $1.5 billion SpaceX telecom security services

Italy is in advanced talks with Elon Musk’s SpaceX for a deal to provide secure telecommunications for the nation’s government — the largest such project in Europe, people with knowledge of the matter said Sunday. Discussions are ongoing, and a final agreement on the five-year contract hasn’t been reached, said the people, who asked not to be identified citing confidential discussions. The project has already been approved by Italy’s Intelligence Services as well as Italy’s Defense Ministry, they said. The negotiations, which had stalled until recently, appeared to move forward after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia visited President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on Saturday.

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