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15 Sep 2023

Some interresting comments by Themacrocompass.com / Alfonso Peccatiello

on yesterday's ECB hike and Lagarde's comments: "The demand for corporate loans in Europe has plummeted as borrowing costs remain prohibitively high. The Eurozone credit creation process is quite reliant on bank lending, so this matters. And indeed markets aren't reacting as if the ECB just hiked - quite the opposite: bond yields have moved lower and the EUR has taken another dip. The risks of an ECB policy mistake keep growing".

14 Sep 2023

While Germany is deindustrializing US construction spending on manufacturing is going thru the roof. Viel glück Deutschland...

Source: Michael A. Arouet

14 Sep 2023

German builders warn of crisis as they scrap record number of projects

According to a FT article, cancelled building projects and financial distress among landlords and builders in Germany have hit their highest levels since reunification three decades ago, intensifying the construction crisis in the EU’s biggest economy. Hit by rising interest rates, soaring costs and weaker demand, 20.7 per cent of construction companies said they had been forced to scrap a project in August, up from 18.9 per cent in the previous month, according to a survey of 500 businesses by researchers at the Ifo Institute in Munich. Source: https://lnkd.in/etkDryVY

13 Sep 2023

Disinflationary forces are fading right now in Germany

Wholesale prices rose 0.2% MoM in August, after 4 consecutive months of declines. Prices of mineral oil products rose markedly (+6.9%) compared w/July 2023. More headaches for the ECB? Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

13 Sep 2023

Concerns over Italy's ability to cut the budget deficit have increased Italy's 10y risk spread over German bunds

The risk spread may expand more if the ECB raises rates 25bps on Thursday. As highlighted by HolgerZ, Italian banks' €380bn of BTPs are central to the €1.6tn so-called sovereign "doom loop." Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

8 Sep 2023

Regulation: this is where Europe want to take lead globally...

the rest of the world (especially the #us) wants to lead on #innovation and #growth but Europe wants to become the champion of #regulation... Indeed, U.S. tech giants are facing stricter rules in Europe with more regulation (the Digital Markets Act or DMA) announced this week. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, named six “gatekeepers” on Wednesday — these are companies that have an annual turnover above 7.5 billion euros ($8 billion) or 45 million monthly active users inside the bloc. They are Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and ByteDance, who now have six months to comply with stricter market rules — such as not being able to prevent users from uninstalling any pre-installed software or apps, or treating their own services more favorably. Source: CNBC, politic.eu

8 Sep 2023

Should German automotive executives start to panic?

While German unions request four days workweek, projections by IHS / UBS show that China automakers are likely to take substantial global market share in the years to come... Source: Michel A.Arouet

6 Sep 2023

The most valuable listed company in Europe now comes from Denmark

Novo Nordisk has overtaken luxury goods group LVMH on the stock market. It is now worth >€400bn, LVMH 'only' €382bn. The Danish drugmaker on Monday introduced Wegovy in Britain after launching it in the US in June 2021. Soaring demand in the world’s largest drug market subsequently delayed marketing in Europe. The drug is already available in Norway, Denmark and Germany. The company said on Monday that the drug would be introduced to the UK “through a controlled and limited launch”. Novo Nordisk is the largest producer, by sales, in a market for diabetes and new weight-loss drugs that analysts forecast would reach $130bn to $140bn in annual sales worldwide. The company’s biggest competitor in the market, Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly, has applied for regulatory approval to use its diabetes drug Mounjaro to treat obesity. Source: FT

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