The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz.
Disinflationary forces continue in Germany.
Wholesales Prices drop 0.1% MoM in Feb after +0.1% MoM in Jan, plunge 3% YoY which is a good leading indicator for German food price CPI. Sources: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Where us inflation is and where it isn’t
Source: Evan, Yahoo Finance
Yesterday's hot CPI prints shows that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.
Source: Lyn Alden, FRED
US inflation looks sticking, at least decline in the US headline CPI is stalling since Jun 2023.
In Feb, CPI rose by 0.4%MoM, both overall & excluding energy & food. Prices for services in particular increased, reflecting rising wage costs. High inflation rate in Jan was not an outlier. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
ECB’s Lagarde signals June rate cut w/2% inflation in sight.
Markets agree and price in 97bps cut for 2024. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
According to latest Fund Manager Survey by BofA, nobody is expecting higher inflation
Source: TME
Supercore PCE MoM exploded, highest since Dec 2021
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
