US diesel vs inflation: if history is any guide, recent pop of US diesel prices could imply CPI going back over 4%
Source: BofA
Tokyo core-core CPI inflation printed at +0.575% MoM
That's the 2nd biggest monthly increase since Covid. And one of the biggest monthly increases over the last 30 years outside of sales tax hikes. Inflation is not transitory in Japan... $JPY. Source: Viraj Patel, Vanda Research
Orange Juice cannot be stopped as it surges to another all-time high.
It's up 18% over the last 2 weeks - source: Barcharts
6 goods & services with a lower price today than a year ago...
Source: HolgerZ, make it
Why a "hawkish hold" by the Fed remains a high probability outcome.
The bar for the Fed to start cutting interest rates is high. It is also worthwhile to remember that Powell job remains a difficult one in light of what has been taking place since the start of the hiking rates cycle and more recently. Indeed, 1) the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when the Fed started hiking last March...(hot job market = wage pressure =higher inflation) - see UPPER CHART BELOW 2) Financial conditions are now far easier than where they were last September... 3) The S&P 500 is back where it was just as the Fed started hiking - see LOWER CHART 4) Meanwhile, commodity prices are starting to ramp up, which could add upward pressure on headline inflation. Bottom line: while markets expect rate cuts to soon follow due to cooling inflation, there is a very decent probability that the Fed might be forced holding tight. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Hungary still has an inflation rate of >20%, highest inflation rate in entire EU.
Inflation is driven by food prices (Food CPI +29% YoY) as Hungary has been hit by a drought and this has caused prices to rise. In addition, there is a shortage on the labor market, low labor productivity & very expansionary macroeconomic policies. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Fun fact is that Japanese inflation is now higher than that in the US for the first time since October 2015.
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Probability of a Fed rate hike next week is approaching 100%.
Done deal. Source: Charlie Biello