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Disinflationary forces continue in Germany.
Wholesales Prices drop 0.1% MoM in Feb after +0.1% MoM in Jan, plunge 3% YoY which is a good leading indicator for German food price CPI. Sources: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Yesterday's hot CPI prints shows that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.
Source: Lyn Alden, FRED
US inflation looks sticking, at least decline in the US headline CPI is stalling since Jun 2023.
In Feb, CPI rose by 0.4%MoM, both overall & excluding energy & food. Prices for services in particular increased, reflecting rising wage costs. High inflation rate in Jan was not an outlier. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
ECB’s Lagarde signals June rate cut w/2% inflation in sight.
Markets agree and price in 97bps cut for 2024. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
According to latest Fund Manager Survey by BofA, nobody is expecting higher inflation
Source: TME
Supercore PCE MoM exploded, highest since Dec 2021
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
More evidence of a decline in US Inflation...
The PCE Price Index moved down to 2.4% in January, its lowest level since February 2021. Cycle peak was 7% in June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
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