Record green bond sales lift outlook for ESG debt
Green bonds issuance globally hit a record $380 billion in the first half of 2023, rebounding from $261 billion during the prior six months.
Governments and financials are the main contributors. Germany, Italy and Hong Kong governments in combination sold $52 billion green bonds, 150% more than each half of 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
The US Corporate Debt Maturity Wall
$230bn ($525bn Annualized) of Corporate Debt Matures in the Remainder of 2023 $790bn matures in 2024 $1,070bn matures in 2025 Source: Ayesha Tariq, Goldman Sachs
This could be a problem for sugar prices which already hit 12-year highs back in May
Source: Barchart
German exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 2000% in the past 3 years
Value of these exports is small, but this is just one of many examples showing how hard it is to police export controls on western goods to Russia. Source: Robin Brooks
Consumer price inflation is creeping higher again on a month-over-month basis, driven in part by higher gas prices, according to the Cleveland Fed's forecast
Source: Lisa Abramowicz
The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is at the highest levels since early 2021
That being said, there has been some divergence recently between "hard" and "soft" data. Indeed, 'Hope' has been in charge of macro data recently with 'soft' survey data surging back in its mean-reverting manner as 'hard' real data has been fading (led down by industrial, personal finance, and housing data)... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Which Countries Hold the Most U.S. Debt (which just got downgraded)?
With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, #japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan surpassed China as the top holder in 2019 as China shed over $250 billion, or 30% of its holdings in four years. the United Kingdom is the third highest holder, at over $655 billion in Treasuries. Across Europe, 13 countries are notable holders of these securities, the highest in any region, followed by Asia-Pacific at 11 different holders. A handful of small nations own a surprising amount of U.S. debt. With a population of 70,000, the Cayman Islands own a towering amount of Treasury bonds to the tune of $284 billion. There are more hedge funds domiciled in the Cayman Islands per capita than any other nation worldwide. In fact, the four smallest nations in the visualization above—Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas, and Luxembourg—have a combined population of just 1.2 million people, but own a staggering $741 billion in Treasuries. Source: Visual Capitalist
A mixed message from the July US jobs report: the US economy added 187k jobs according to Establishment survey, a tiny bit below Street’s +200k forecast
According to the Household survey, the number of employed people rose by 268k. Because of this 268k number, unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6% in June and below estimated 3.6%. Wages ran hot, coming in at +4.4% YoY (vs Street +4.2% and vs +4.4% in June). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
