Foodflation! Prices at McDonald's $MCD have doubled over the last decade.
Source: Barchart
Shocking stat of the day: US net interest payments as a share of GDP are set to reach 3.9% by 2034, the highest in history.
This exceeds the all-time record percentage seen in the 1990s as well as World War II levels. Net interest is expected to account for 75% of the budget deficit increase over the next decade, according to the CBO. All as interest expense has already DOUBLED in just 3 years and now costs the US ~$2 billion per day. The worst part? This project assumes no recession hits within the next 10 years. What happens if we enter a recession? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Germany's inflation rose to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in April while Core CPI remains unchanged at 3%.
Uptick was driven by base effects related to the introduction of a cheap public-transportation ticket (so-called 49€ ticket), which pushed prices down 12 months ago. But also food price inflation quickened (for a 2nd month). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The US money supply is back in line with the size of the economy, after the excesses of the pandemic period
Time for the Fed to take its foot off the brake pedal regarding liquidity Source: US Federal Reserve, BEA
Japan’s population has now been contracting for almost 15 years
At the same time, number of vacant homes there has risen significantly Now reaching the 9 million mark At this rate, Japan’s demography poses long-term sustainability risks for their economy Source: Game of Trades
Homebuyer conditions for US consumers plummeted to their lowest level in history this month.
The index of buying conditions for houses fell to ~30 points which is below the previous low of ~40 points in the early 1980s. In just 4 years, conditions for buying a house have dropped by 110 points, a massive 73% decline. Meanwhile, buying conditions for vehicles and large household durables are down for 3 straight months. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Wall Street pull-back yesterday is mainly explained by the PMI data.
And not because they show that the US economy remians resilient. The biggest concern was the prices print as it shows that more cost increases are coming for companies and consumers alike: - Input prices continued to rise sharply in May, the rate of inflation accelerating to register the second-largest monthly increase seen over the past eight months. - Manufacturers reported an especially steep increase, suffering the largest cost rise for one-and-a-half years amid reports of higher supplier prices for a wide variety of inputs, including metals, chemicals, plastics, and timber- based products, as well as higher energy and labor costs. - Service sector costs also rose at an increased rate, reflecting higher staffing costs in particular. - Companies again sought to pass higher costs onto customers in the form of higher selling prices, the rate of increase of which accelerated slightly compared to April. One good news though: although still elevated by pre-pandemic standards, the rate of inflation across both goods and services remained below the average recorded over the past year. Source: S&P Global, Markets & Mayhem
After the hotter than expected Flash PMI prints yesterday, the market is pricing in one cut for this year to occur in November or December, and another in early 2025.
Source: Markets & Mayhem
