As shown by Meb Faber, holding 40% gold instead of US treasuries within your 60-40 portfolio would have delivered similar results as the 'traditional' 60-40 portfolio...
Going forward, with US Treasuries expected to be a poor diversifier due to supply overhang and sticky inflation, gold might prove to be even more useful within multi-assets portfolios.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for US CPI today
Source: WSJ
JUST IN: Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points as soon as June and 150 points by the end of this year, says State Street in call against Wall Street consensus
Source: Bloomberg, radar
The 60/40 portfolio doesn't fit all macro regimes by Alfonso Peccatiello / The macro compass
The 60/40 portfolio (60% equities / 40% bonds) did work great for 3 of the last 4 decades, and that's because the macro regime was one of predictably low growth and inflation, and Central Banks ready to support markets and economies. But are you sure the next 10 years be the same as the last 10 years?
US breakeven inflation rates rising
Source: Win Smart; Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg
From expecting 6 Fed rate cuts to just two in 2024 😉
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Ahead of US inflation numbers tomorrow (Wednesday), US 2-year breakeven rates just rose to 13-month highs...
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
Jamie Dimon's 61 page annual shareholder letter is finally out for FY2023!
-A rate spike is very possible with stickier inflation. Interest rates could soar to 8% -Says Federal deficit is a real issue hurting business confidence (govt spending could keep rates high) -US economy resilient so far with consumer spending, but the economy has also been fueled by government deficit spending and past stimulus -Market is pricing in 70-80% chance of a soft landing/no landing...Dimon thinks that is too high -Inflation resurgence, political polarization are risks for this year (Ukraine, Middle East, China) - AI may be as impactful on humanity as the printing press Source: SpecialSitsNews, Barchart
