PCE Deflator, the FOMC's favorite inflation number, show a rise as expected with the YoY at 3.3% (from 3%) and the core at 4.2% (from 4.1%)
Jobless claims at 228k (235k expected) showing continued strength ahead of Friday's NFP report Source: Ole S.Hansen
Is the US stock market severely mispriced?
Typically, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is well above the US 30y real yield. That has changed. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The percentage of US workers quitting their jobs has moved down to 2.3%, the fewest since January 2021
The 1.5 job openings per unemployed person in the US is lowest since September 2021. Labor market continues to loosen... Source: Charlie Bilello
Treasury yields extend retreat from year’s highs after GDP data
Short-maturity yields led the move, with two-year yields declining about five basis points to around 4.85%, and most yields reached the lowest levels in more than two weeks. The
benchmark 10-year note’s yield touched 4.085%, the lowest level since Aug. 11.
Following downward revisions to the economy’s Q2 growth rate and related inflation measures, swap contracts tied to Fed meeting dates priced in slightly less than a 50% chance of another rate increase this year. Source: Bloomberg
Hong Kong Dollar is on track for its biggest monthly loss against the US Dollar in 38 years
source: Bloomberg, Barchart
The importance of Nvidia and Tesla for the US equities market
Source: Mac10
US commercial real estate prices prices are down sharply this year with offices building prices down ~30%
On top of declining prices, there are nearly $1.4 TRILLION of commercial real estate loans coming due by 2025. Meanwhile, rates on the commercial real estate loans have more than doubled since they were issued. Last but not least, vacancies in commercial real estate are skyrocketing (which means rent revenue is down). The coktail of rising rates on loans that need to be refinanced and declining income looks like a rather toxic one. Source: The Kobeisi Letter
The last time 10Y yields were this far above $SPX dividend yields was September 2007, the month stocks peaked
Source: zerohedge
