US equities: absolute & relative valuations offer a different perspective
•On the positive side, market (absolute) valuations have improved as stock prices have dipped and earnings have held up •On the negative side, the rise in bond yields imply a lower Equity Risk Premium (ERP), now at 39bps (19-year low), i.e equities are more expensive vs. bonds than at the start of the Summer... Source: Edward Jones, BofA
Ahead of Jackson Hole this week, Atlanta Fed GDP Now for US real GDP in 3Q is at 5.8%...
Way ahead of Street consensus and with a clear acceleration since early August...
More often than not, stocks rise the week after Jackson Hole Will this year follow the pattern, or will it be one of the outlier years with a sell-off?
Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
The US housing market affordability index is now ~10% BELOW the 2006 lows.
Even if prices fell 30%, housing affordability would still be above pre-pandemic levels. It’s a tough time to be a homebuyer in the US. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US real yields are at a 14-year high
Source: BofA
This is the largest short position ever in the US Treasuries 2 year note
Source: ISI chart
"inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman
Source: Charlie Bilello
Are US consumers heading for trouble?
Only $200 billion is left in excess savings, which is keeping households afloat. 2 months ago, this number was at $500 billion. At current rate, savings will be depleted by September 2023 Source: Game of trades
