The US Corporate Debt Maturity Wall
$230bn ($525bn Annualized) of Corporate Debt Matures in the Remainder of 2023 $790bn matures in 2024 $1,070bn matures in 2025 Source: Ayesha Tariq, Goldman Sachs
One asset class - two different bets => hedge funds are shorting US treasuries at historic levels while asset managers are doing the exact opposite 👀
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
US Property loans are so unappealing that banks want to dump them
Lenders including GS and JPM. have been trying to sell debt backed by offices, hotels and even apartments in recent months, but many are finding that tidying up loan books is no easy feat when concerns about commercial real estate have surged.
Maturing loans that will need to be refinanced is a major concern in a high-interest-rates environment. Source: Bloomberg, Green Street
US Bank credit YoY is now -0.2% YoY. First time negative since 08 (Keep in mind that in the US about 25% of credit is securities and the other 75% loans)
Source: FRED, Adem Tumerkan
With the recent surge in oil demand, the US government is now left with a petroleum reserve sufficient for only 16 days
Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Hedgeye cartoon on the Fitch downgrade
source: Hedgeye
Interest payments on US government debt are soaring
source: Markets & Mayhem
Fed QT accelerates. Fed balance sheet shrank $91bn in July, -$759bn from peak, biggest drop ever to $8.2tn, lowest level since July 2021
Fed has now shed 22.3% of the Treasury securities it bought during pandemic QE. Fed's total assets now equal to 30.6% of US's GDP vs ECB's 53%, BoJ's 130%. Source: HolgerZ, wolfstreet.com
