Nice relative price chart by Jay R. Ligon at TheeDisruptor
The 7 C's (Cattle, Corn, Crude, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Coffee) vs Consumer Discretionary $XLY Why? It is a clear measure of the inelastic demand for commodities (the ultimate staples) versus elastic demand of discretionaries. Plus we can eye inflation at work and the strength of commodities.
The World’s Largest Consumer Markets in 2030 🌏
Source: Visual Capitalist
The Spend, Spend, Spend Strategy..
Temu is going all in on Marketing (including in this Sunday’s Super Bowl) Marketing spend: • 2023 - $1.7 billion • 2024 - $3 billion (est.) source : wsj
The richsession...
A record-high share of US consumers are planning to go on vacation to a foreign country within the next six months. Via Apollo/Slok
The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford to pay
The consumer default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has seen a sharp spike to 7.51% This level is higher than the: - Dot Com bubble - Financial Crisis - C-19 With credit card interest rates still above 20%. Consumers are going to continue feeling the pressure. Source: Game of Trades
From October onwards, US consumers face a double whammy: student loans + auto loans...
Suspended Student loan payments helped fuel the auto market over the last several years. Auto loans pass Student loans in consumer debt load for the first time in 13yrs, which means consumers face a double-whammy starting in October w/existing auto payments & resumed student loan obligations. Auto loan delinquencies are on the rise and more consumers could fall behind if unemployment increases. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Are US consumers heading for trouble?
Only $200 billion is left in excess savings, which is keeping households afloat. 2 months ago, this number was at $500 billion. At current rate, savings will be depleted by September 2023 Source: Game of trades
The power of loyalty
Source: Compounding Quality
