The international role of the US dollar in one chart
Source: JP Morgan
One of the most important chart of 2023
Source: FT
The U.S. dollar remains king and is now used in 48% of international payment transactions, the highest level in more than a decade
Source: Barchart. Macrobond
Despite all the talk, the world uses USD to trade
Source: DB
Hedge Funds now have the largest long position in the US dollar since February 2022
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Be careful not to look at gold only against the dollar. Gold is at its highest against many FIAT currencies
But even the $2,000 an ounce level is intriguing: despite clearly positive real rates and the appreciation of the greenback, gold is close to all-time highs. Looking forward, two scenarios are possible: o 1) Gold is overvalued and should soon depreciate o 2) Gold is seen as a safe haven against geopolitical uncertainty, but also against the political disorder in Washington and the declining confidence in the Fed. If this is the case, a possible depreciation of the dollar and a fall in the real interest rate could benefit the yellow metal. Bottom-line: Gold remains an attractive portfolio diversifier Source chart: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
There are few assets that can provide meaningful diversification benefit in a portfolio, particularly from a real return / purchasing power standpoint
In an environment where stocks and bonds are so highly correlated, notable to see the low correlation across commodities - Source: Bob Elliott.
Gold's normal negative correlation to the dollar (upper chart) and US bond yields continue to collapse
Highlighting the current support for XAU as an alternative investment amid rising financial risks as yields surge and investors worry about developments in the Middle East (Chart: Bloomberg)
