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16 Nov 2023

Let's hope the US economy is truly slowing down -- particularly manufacturing --, and that the winter is mild

US stocks of distillate fuel (diesel and heating oil) are ending the fall season at their lowest **seasonal** level in data since 1982 | Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg

3 Nov 2023

The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000. The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Employment as measured in the household survey, which is used to compute the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 348,000 workers, while the rolls of the unemployed rose by 146,000. A more encompassing jobless rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point. Meanwhile, Household Survey showed a huge 348k loss in jobs during October. Dollar drops, Bond yields slide following VERY disappointing US jobs data which fuel bets Fed is done Source: CNBC, Bloomberg

5 Oct 2023

The construction sector in Germany is really crashing. The German PMI Construction Index fell to 39.3 in Sep from 41.5 in Aug, and the lowest level since statistics began

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

25 Sep 2023

The business outlook in Germany has improved slightly amid a shrinking economy

Source: Bespoke

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