Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
No wonder the US is polarized...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Gross domestic product data showed the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter
That’s much higher than the 2% expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones, underscoring continued economic resiliency despite interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The result, for better or worse, speak for themselves: while Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50%, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154% more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth! Source; www.zerohedge.com
China's real GDP is now further below its pre-COVID trend than after the 2008 crisis
Will they be tempted to opt for more mercantilism (and expansionism)? Source chart: Robin Brooks
The Influence of Family-Owned Businesses, by Share of GDP
by The Visual Capitalist
On January 10, the GDPNow model nowcast of us real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.2%
Source: Atlanta Fed
Believe it or not...
On December 14, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 2.6%.
What a journey for Ireland...
Ireland has experienced unprecedented growth in prosperity in recent years. GDP per capita is now almost $100k, which is more than twice as much as in Germany and three times as much as in Italy. The small country with a population of 5 million has benefited from the large investments made by tech giants, who have settled here b/c of the low tax regime. No other country in Europe has a meaningful budget surplus, can set up 2 sovereign wealth funds, (Future Ireland Fund (FIF) and a smaller Infrastructure, Nature and Climate Fund (INCF) and has a war chest of €2.5bn before 3 important elections. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
