ISM US manufacturing and services employment has simultaneously contracted for 3 consecutive months.
Over the last 20 years, this has happened ONLY twice, during the 2020 pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis. More than 800 companies from manufacturing and services sectors claim that employment is falling. Meanwhile, according to US jobs data, the US job market has never been stronger. Are we going to see meaningful deterioration in jobs data in the coming months? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US job openings dropped in March to the lowest level in 3 years.
US available vacancies declined to 8.49 million from 8.81 million in February, hitting the lowest level since March 2021. Job openings have been declining for the past 2 years since the March 2022 peak of 12 million vacancies. Meanwhile, the quits rate has fallen to 2.1%, the lowest since August 2020. This suggests that many currently employed individuals are either losing confidence and/or are more dependent on their jobs. All eyes are on Friday's jobs report. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The tightest labor market in US history continues to loosen with Job
Openings moving down to 8.49 million (lowest since Feb 2021) and the Quits Rate moving down to 2.1% (lowest since Aug 2020). Source: Charlie Bilello
SUMMARY OF US MARCH ADP JOBS REPORT:
1. The U.S. economy added a higher-than-expected 184,000 jobs in March, as per ADP, easily beating forecasts for +148,000. 2. The number of monthly job gains was the highest in eight months (July 2023) 3. February number was also revised upwards. 4. Wage growth accelerated for those who changed jobs, rising +10% from a year earlier. Key Takeaway: The pickup in jobs growth supports the case that the labor market remains strong, and the economy continues to hold up better than expected. The ADP report does not point to imminent Fed rate cuts as markets continue to push back the timing of the first move. Source: Jesse Cohen, Trading Economics
In an US election year, the spread between “Job Creation” and job “approval rating on the economy” has NEVER been wider...
Source: Mohamed A. El-Erian
