Some investors are worried about VIX index being too low, i.e markets are too complacent
The chart below is a good reminder that a "low VIX" is a normal part of bull markets. Investors seem to always forget this. Source: Mark Ungewitter, Ryan Detrick
Today is the BIG DAY with Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings results after the bell
With the Nasdaq up more than 13% from the lows, $NVDA at all-time-high, 95% of sell-side analysts with a BUY rating on $NVDA (!) sentiment of AI probably at record optimistic level after Microsoft "aqui-hire" of openai and the $VIX historically low at 13.5, there is indeed room for a short-term pullback... Source: www.investing.com, kakashiii111
As stocks tumbled, the VIX soared
And after 105 consecutive days of closing below 20, the longest streak since 2019, the VIX index finally closed above 20 - in fact above 21 - breaking the streak on day 106. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
WIth the Vix <17, Brent oil<$90/bbl and S&P 500>4350, do you feel that risk is currently mispriced?
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Since the VIX has so far failed to break above 20, we are now just shy of 100 sessions in which the VIX has closed below 20
The longest such stretch since October 2018 when, ironically, the market tumbled after the Fed realized it will need to be far more hawkish. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Investors complacency in one chart
VIX has spent 92 sessions below 20, the longest streak since Covid, yet low implied vol regimes can last significantly longer. Source: Goldman Sachs
VIX seasonality perfection???
Source: Equityclock.com, TME
The $VIX ended the day at 12.82, its lowest close since January 2020
Source: Charlie Bilello
