German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine
Is Kyrgyzstan suddenly in a massive boom or are these vehicles and parts just transiting through Kyrgyzstan? Source: Robin Brooks
German growth forecasts for 2024 have been cut following the budget chaos after the Constitutional Court declared govt's spending plans unconstitutional
The consensus now expects GDP growth for Germany of just 0.4% for the coming year. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
It looks like Germany is in for high electricity prices for quite some time...
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Germany's inflation slowed to 3.8% YoY in Oct from 4.5% in Sep vs 4% expected and lowest since Aug 2021 as energy prices dropped 3.2% YoY and food inflation slowed to 6.1% YoY
German October Core CPI dropped to 3.8% from 4.6% in September. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Is Germany already the sick man of Europe?
Source: Michael A.Arouet
German business outlook is improving, feeding rebound hopes
Ifo expectations index rose to 84.7 in Oct, up from 83.1 in Sep and way better than BBG consensus of 83.5. "What we see here does suggest that we see a certain stabilization,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest told BBG. “The German economy will be shrinking this year, but for the final quarter we do expect a stabilization, slight growth.” Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now
German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
There is a different culture of public debt in Germany than in France
Nevertheless, French Finance Minister Le Maire hopes to find a compromise for new budget rules w/Germany. “We will continue to work w/Christian Lindner in the coming weeks to try to reach a Franco-German accord that could serve as a basis for a wider deal,” Le Maire said ahead of a meeting with his EU peers in Luxembourg. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
