The 10-year note yield is now down ~35 basis points in just 5 days
This is the biggest pullback in treasury yields since the October 6th high. Let's keep in mind that it is not only due to a shift in Fed expectations, but rather a shift in US Treasury borrowing. As the US Treasury ramps up issuances of short-term debt, long-dated bonds are falling. However, higher for longer Fed policy seems to be setting a floor on this pullback. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US deficit is doubling as US Economy grows shows why yields are at 5%
Source: Bitcoin magazine
This chart illustrates another factor contributing to the increase in US bond yields:
Concerns about the govt's ability to manage its debt responsibly. The price of insuring against the possibility of the US government defaulting on its obligations (CDS Price) has recently jumped Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
10-Year Bond Yields
USA 5.00% Greece 4.36% Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
Fed Chair Jay Powell on why longer-term yields are moving higher: “It’s not apparently about expectations of higher inflation
And it’s also not mainly about shorter term policy moves.” He probably has a point as #realyields are surging toward 2.5%, the highest since 2008. So what else can explain the surge in bond yields? Hints: 1) 1. A resilient economy — Q3 REAL GDP growth is expected to be around 3% annualized, well above trend growth of 1.5% to 2%, driven in large part by a resilient labor market and a strong consumer 2) Supply/demand imbalances — Given the growing U.S. fiscal deficit, the Treasury Department has been increasing its auction sizes for U.S. Treasury bills and notes. This year, the total amount of Treasuries issued in auctions is expected to climb to over $3 trillion, higher than at any year over the past decade (excluding 2020). This figure is expected to increase next year. Meanwhile, some of the natural demand for these bonds has moderated: The Fed is undertaking QT (reducing its holding of Treasuries by about $650 billion over the last year) and some foreign buyers, such as China, have slowly been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries as well. Source: Lisa Ambramowitz, Bloomberg, Edward Jones
US yield curve keeps bear-steepening w/2s/10y spread jumps to -19bps after Fed's Powell has given 'green light' for higher long-term bond yields with the 10-year near 5%
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Locking in 2.5% real yields which is 0.5% above the economy's potential growth rates, with inflation optionality icing on top, is once in a decade valuation opportunity
-> According to Steve Donzé (Pictet Asset Management). He has a point...
The US 10-year note yield is now officially above the median cap rate for the first time since 2008, according to Reventure Consulting
In simple terms, the return on an investment property is now BELOW the 10-year note yield. It should be no surprise that investor house purchases are now down a massive 45% this year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
