Treasury Yields now surpass Stock Dividend Yields by the widest margin since the Global Financial Crisis
Source: Bloomberg, Bar chart
Yields pushing higher
US 2Y yields hit their highest since July 2006 US 5Y yields highest since Aug 2007 US 10Y highest since Nov 2007 US 30Y highest since April 2011 Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Inflation fear is NOT the driver of rising yields
Indeed, 10y real yields (10y nominal yields - 10y inflation expectations) jumped to 2.11%, the highest since 2009. In other words, investors are demanding higher REAL yields in the face of political chaos in Washington and high debt. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Sector fund flows
Long-only institutional & retail investors are all-in overweight tech and meaningfully underweight energy. Will elevated tech valuations, rising long-end yields, and rising oil prices trigger a squeeze in positioning? Source: The Daily Shot, EPFR, DB
Is the 60/40 portfolio overvalued?
In August 2021, the combined valuation of overall equities and US Treasuries had reached its most expensive level in 130 years. To put the current valuation imbalance into perspective, its recent peak was a staggering 61% higher than its previous peak in the early 2000s. Although prices have corrected somewhat, particularly in the Treasury market, multiples are still elevated today. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Despite the rise in bond yields, the Nasdaq 100 held up better than the Dow and other US indices on Tuesday
Tuesday was the way the Nasdaq's second best performance relative to the Russell 2000 since November 2021, breaking out to a new cycle high. The last time Nasdaq/Russell 2000 traded here was March 2000 - the very peak of the dotcom bubble... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
More or less in tandem: US 10y yields and WTI oil price
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
We are now seeing the widest spread between mortgage rates and 30-year risk-free rates in history
Should we see this as another barometer of credit tightness in the system? Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
