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10 Aug 2023

US inflation a tad lower than what economists expected: US July CPI accelerates to 3.2% YoY from 3% in June vs 3.3% expected, BUT the first acceleration after 12 consecutive months of decline

Both Goods and Services inflation (YoY) slowed in July - but Services remain extremely high at +6.1%... Core CPI slows to 4.7% YoY from 4.8% in June as expected. Shelter costs contributed to about 90% of the increase in July CPI. Note that #Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter - remains sticky' as it reaccelerated in July (+0.2% MoM, and from +3.9% to +4.0% YoY)... Fed Swaps price in lower odds (20%) of another rate hike this year. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, www.zerohedge.com

9 Aug 2023

China's consumer and producer prices both declined in July for the first time since November 2020, a sign of deflation pressure amid weakening demand

CPI dipped 0.3% from a year earlier while PPI retreated for a 10th consecutive month, sliding 4.4%. "China is in deflation for sure," said Robin Xing at Morgan Stanley. "The question is how long." The statistics bureau attributed the CPI decline to the high base of comparison, saying the dip is likely to be temporary. Source: J-C Gand

7 Aug 2023

Consumer price inflation is creeping higher again on a month-over-month basis, driven in part by higher gas prices, according to the Cleveland Fed's forecast

Source: Lisa Abramowicz

31 Jul 2023

US diesel vs inflation: if history is any guide, recent pop of US diesel prices could imply CPI going back over 4%

Source: BofA

20 Jul 2023

What goes up must come down...

The collapse in US CPI over the past year is extreme, falling from 9.1% to 3%. BofA writes: "...since 1980, only in 8 cases had inflation fallen by more than 6% in a year, and only in France in 1990 from a starting point lower than 10%." Source: TME, BofA

14 Jul 2023

Disinflationary trends in the US

Disinflationary trends in the US 1) CPI Inflation: 3.0%, Lowest since March 2021. 2) PPI Inflation: 0.1%, Lowest since August 2020. 3) Import Prices: -6.1%, Lowest since May 2020. 4) Export Prices: -12%, Lowest on record. Source: Charlie Bilello

14 Jul 2023

The spread between US CPI and PPI is a good omen for corporate profit margins

The spread between US CPI and PPI is a good omen for corporate profit margins. This is key to widening profit margins. Companies are able to boost the prices they charge consumers more and more relative to their input cost. The spread between y/y CPI and PPI remains at the widest levels since the current incarnation of PPI started in 2011. Source: Bespoke, Lisa Abramowicz

14 Jul 2023

More disinflation in the offing: US PPI slowed to 0.1% YoY in June, from 0.9% in May and lower than expected

More disinflation in the offing: US PPI slowed to 0.1% YoY in June, from 0.9% in May and lower than expected. This is smallest pace since Aug 2020 and is down from the all-time high of 11.7% YoY from March 2022 in a promising sign for CPI. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

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