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11 Apr 2024

The Federal Reserve's next move might be to raise interest rates warns Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Source: Barchart

11 Apr 2024

Raoul Pal - Global Macro Investors (GMI) has shared this chart on X showing Global liquidity growing at a CAGR of 8%.

His view: "While everyone is worried about 3.5% inflation, the real issue is the ongoing 8% per annum debasement of currency, on top of inflation. Your hurdle rate to break even is around 12%, which is the 10-year average returns of the S&P 500...just to keep your purchasing power". Key takeaway: if you want to protect your purchasing power in a global monetary debasement, you have 3 choices: 1/ spend; 2/ invest into risk assets; 3/ invest into store of values

10 Apr 2024

BREAKING: Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024.

This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March. Odds of a rate cut in June are down from ~60% before the CPI report to ~22% now. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com

9 Apr 2024

From expecting 6 Fed rate cuts to just two in 2024 😉

Source: Markets & Mayhem

5 Apr 2024

Some hawkish comments by fed officials seemed to be behind yesterday sell-off in stocks.

Among the comments: *BARR: BANKS' OFFICE COMMERCIAL REAL-ESTATE ISSUES TO TAKE TIME *KUGLER: `SOME LOWERING' OF RATES THIS YEAR LIKELY APPROPRIATE *FED'S HARKER SAYS INFLATION IS STILL TOO HIGH *BARKIN: FED HAS TIME TO GAIN MORE CLARITY BEFORE LOWERING RATES *GOOLSBEE: WORTH STAYING ATTUNED TO DETERIORATION IN JOBS MARKET *MESTER: NEED MORE PROGRESS ON HOUSING, CORE SERVICES INFLATION But the key market driver (to the downside) was Kashkari - President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - who hinted at the potential of NO RATE-CUTS. *KASHKARI: QUESTION OF WHY CUT RATES IF ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG “In March I had jotted down two rate cuts this year if inflation continues to fall back towards our 2% target,” Kashkari said in a virtual event with LinkedIn on Thursday. “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all.” His comments seemed to trigger a wave of selling in stocks.

4 Apr 2024

NOTHING NEW FROM POWELL YESTERDAY...

Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest-rate cuts, stating that they would wait and observe before making any decisions. While Powell didn't introduce any significant changes, his comment provided relief to Wall Street by suggesting that recent inflation data hadn't substantially altered the overall economic outlook. He also reiterated the likelihood of rate reductions at some point during the year. “On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Mr. Powell stated. “We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy hashtag#rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent.” At the same time, he said that cuts to the benchmark federal funds rate are “likely to be appropriate at some point this year” as he does not believe “inflation is reversing higher.”

27 Mar 2024

BREAKING: Federal Reserve

The Fed said on Tuesday that it officially saw a net negative income of $114.3 billion in 2023, a record loss tied to expenses related to managing the U.S. central bank's short-term interest rate target. The loss last year follows $58.8 billion in net income in 2022, the Fed said. Source: Barchart

25 Mar 2024

THE WEEK AHEAD... All eyes on inflation data + Powell speech on Friday

>>> In the US: 1. New Home Sales data - Monday 2. CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday 3. US Q4 2023 GDP data - Thursday 4. February PCE Inflation data - Friday 5. hashtag#Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events >>> Inflation will also be the key theme in europe as flash CPI reports start to come in. >>> In Japan, the focus will be on the summary of opinions from this week's BoJ meeting as well as the Tokyo CPI, labour market data and industrial production. Picture via openart.ai/midjourney

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