The SP500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
The disconnect between Fed net liquidity (grey) and the S&P 500 (purple) is growing by the day
source: Markets & Mayhem
The market has NO FEAR. Extremely little risk priced for the FOMC meeting.
Chart shows SPX 1 week implied volatility skew within one week of FOMC meetings. Source: TME, Nomura
FED QT continues w/balance sheet dropped by $22.4bn past week.
It is 6th week in a row that total assets shrink. Fed more than leveled the increase in the wake of the banking crisis from March. Fed balance sheet now equal to 31% of US's GDP vs #ECB's 53%, SNB's 121%, BoJ's 128%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
M2 money supply has declined at the fastest rate ever recorded since the Fed began collecting data in 1959
Probably has helped cool inflation but could it usher in a new set of problems? Source: Fred, Barchart
The NASDAQ (in yellow) has been massively decoupling from the FED balance sheet (in purple)
Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
The sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The #sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The #Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved
Despite the better-than-expected CPI report today, the probability of a July 26 rate of 25 basis points to 5.25% to 5.50% barely moved. The market is strongly expecting a hike in two weeks. Source: Jim Bianco
