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7 Mar 2024

U.S. Households are now spending a record $573.4 billion on non-mortgage interest payments which for the first time in history is roughly the same as mortgage interest payments.

source : Barchart

12 Jan 2024

Surprise, surprise... Even with a hot jobs report and inflation rising to 3.4%, market expectations regarding timing and number of rate cuts have shifted more dovish.

Markets are now pricing-in a rate cut at EVERY Fed meeting this year beginning in March 2024 until December 2024. Effectively, markets are saying that us interestrates will move in a straight-line lower. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

8 Jan 2024

Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises

Source: Bloomberg

4 Jan 2024

US Interest expense ~$1.1 trillion as of today

That's $250BN more than the Defense Budget; $250BN more than spending on Medicare, $200BN more than spending on health, and will surpass the $1.35 trillion spending on Social Security this year, becoming the single biggest outlay Source:

20 Dec 2023

Compound interest as the 8th wonder of the world...


14 Dec 2023

The European Central Bank held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to shrink its balance sheet

ECB's Lagarde: We did not discuss rate cuts at all BUT markets price in 5.3 cuts for 2024. “The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary,” it said in a statement. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC

14 Dec 2023

Interest rate futures shift to showing a ~57% chance of rate CUTS beginning in March 2024

Markets also see a growing 9% chance of rate cuts beginning as soon as next month. Futures are projecting a total of FIVE rate cuts in 2024. There's a 28% chance of 6 cuts and an 11% chance of 7 cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed just said they see just 3 rate cuts in 2024. So markets are still "fighting" the Fed. But the Fed is starting to adjust... Source: The Kobeissi Letter

8 Dec 2023

The average credit card interest rate right now has risen to 27.81%

And that's with U.S. credit card debt hitting new record highs north of $1,000,000,000,000 Source: Hedgeye

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