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6 Oct 2023

Open interest for bullish call contracts has soared to an all-time high for $TLT

Traders see an end to the market rout that has led to TLT’s longest streak of weekly losses since 2022. Source: Credit From Macro to Micro

5 Oct 2023

The impacts of rising interest rates on the costs of your mortgage over the life of the loan

In the US, A $400,000 house now costs over $1,000,000, with interest rates now at 7.7% from 3%. Source: WallStreet Sliver

2 Oct 2023

The longest time period chart on US interest rates you will ever find...

Source: BofA

2 Oct 2023

While mega-caps tech stocks are recording huge returns on their cash pile thanks to the rise of interest rates, this is not the case for the rest of the market

Small cap companies are paying the most interest expense ever recorded and unfortunately their interest income is not keeping pace. This will become an even larger problem when small companies are forced to refinance at significantly higher rates. Source: FT, barchart

28 Sep 2023

Consumer balance sheets are getting stretched

Accumulating debt during a low interest rates environment is one thing. But in light of the continuous surge of the price of money, the US consumer is probably starting to feel the pain Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

27 Sep 2023

World trade volumes fell at their fastest annual pace for almost three years in July

Closely watched figures signal rising interest rates are beginning to impact global demand for goods. Trade volumes were down 3.2 per cent in July compared with the same month last year, the steepest drop since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic in August 2020. The latest World Trade Monitor figure, published by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, or CPB, followed a 2.4 per cent contraction in June and added to evidence that global growth was slowing. After booming during the pandemic, demand for global goods exports has weakened on the back of higher inflation, bumper rate rises by the world’s central banks in 2022, and more spending on domestic services as economies reopened following lockdowns. The about-turn in export volumes was broad based, with most of the world reporting falling trade volumes in July. China, the world’s largest goods exporter, posted a 1.5 per cent annual fall, the eurozone a 2.5 per cent contraction, and the US a 0.6 per cent decrease. Source: FT

26 Sep 2023

Private equity firms are redirecting their focus from mega buyouts to businesses such as private credit as higher interest rates disrupt their strategies

Over the past year, buyouts have been halted due to the impact of higher rates, resulting in private equity firms being burdened with portfolio companies acquired at high prices. In response to this challenging environment, some of the industry’s largest firms are venturing into new areas, including lending to companies, which has become more lucrative as central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation. Top executives from Apollo and Blackstone recently highlighted the potential of private credit and infrastructure investing at the annual IPEM industry conference in Paris. Source:

21 Sep 2023

SNB unexpectedly leaves policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Swiss national bank unexpectedly leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Market was estimating the probability of a 25bps hike at more than 70% yesterday.
USDCHF broke the 200 daily moving average of 0.9036 and now trading higher over 0.9060.
EURCHF also trading higher at 0.9650.

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