Weighted Average interestrate for sp500 non-financial firms is expected to pick-up in 2024e and 2025e but remains quite low by historical standard.
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Is this the reason why the Fed might be forced to cut rates in March?
We could have: 1. Reverse repo ends (see chart below) 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly) I.e 3 and 4 could counter-balance 1 and 2
Uranium 16-Year High: Uranium going parabolic as it hits its highest price since November 2007
Source: barchart
Remember the 70s?
Source: Win Smart
Freddie Mac Serious delinquency rate US multifamily homes
thru The Daily Shot
US interest rate futures are beginning to shift back in the less dovish direction
Odds of 7 or 8 interest rate cuts in 2024 have halved this week. Also, odds of rate cuts beginning this month are down to just 7%. However, the base case still shows 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 basis points in 2024. This is double the 3 rate cuts forecasted at the Fed's latest meeting. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The probability of a Fed rate cut in March 2024 has jumped up to 83%. A month ago the odds were only 29%.
Source: Charlie Bilello
BREAKING >>>New York Fed President John Williams CNBC interview: The Fed "isn't really" talking about rate cuts right now
Mr. Williams said: - The Fed "isn't really" talking about rate cuts right now. - Committee members submit projections regarding path of interest rates. Inflation and economy is still uncertain, but base cases are looking pretty good. - Policy focused on getting inflation down to 2%. - Market reaction to all news events have been larger than normal. - Fed should be ready to hike again if needed. - Fed is at or near right place for monetary policy. - The policy restraints should be dialed back slowly over the next three years.
