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15 Apr 2024

Getting to 2% YoY CPI by the end of 2024 means we need to average monthly CPI prints of 0.1% or less from here.

Source: Bespoke

15 Apr 2024

Big Mac inflation vs. CPI... which one is right?

While many investors are more confused than ever looking at "CPI", whatever that is, the real inflation gauge is giving off a serious warning. Source: J-C Parets

11 Apr 2024

In our 2024 "10 surprises 2024" (see link below), we had surprise #6: "What if inflation rises again?"

The idea here was that inflation could experience a second wave similar to that seen in the 70s and 80s. And this would lead inflationary assets (e.g., cyclical stocks) to catch up with deflationary assets (e.g. technology stocks). Below an uopdate chart (courtesy of HZ on X) taking into account yesterday's US cpi print... Has a second inflationary wave begun?

11 Apr 2024

Raoul Pal - Global Macro Investors (GMI) has shared this chart on X showing Global liquidity growing at a CAGR of 8%.

His view: "While everyone is worried about 3.5% inflation, the real issue is the ongoing 8% per annum debasement of currency, on top of inflation. Your hurdle rate to break even is around 12%, which is the 10-year average returns of the S&P 500...just to keep your purchasing power". Key takeaway: if you want to protect your purchasing power in a global monetary debasement, you have 3 choices: 1/ spend; 2/ invest into risk assets; 3/ invest into store of values

10 Apr 2024

BREAKING: Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024.

This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance. Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March. Odds of a rate cut in June are down from ~60% before the CPI report to ~22% now. Source: The Kobeissi Letter,

10 Apr 2024

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting for US CPI today

Source: WSJ

13 Mar 2024

Yesterday's hot CPI prints shows that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.

Source: Lyn Alden, FRED

1 Mar 2024

Eurozone CPI slowed less than anticipated in Feb, highlighting stickiness in inflation

Headline inflation eased to 2.6% YoY in Feb, above 2.5% consensus estimate in BBG survey. Core inflation came down by 0.2%-pt to 3.1%, also an upward surprise compared to 2.9% consensus estimate. Source: Bloomberg

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